1. No shortage will be declared in 2019 for Lake Mead, but a looming shortage could trigger cutbacks in late 2019.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its 24-month forecast Wednesday, warning that a nearly-20-year trend toward a drier regional climate coupled with rising demand could drain so much water from the Lake Mead reservoir that cutbacks would be automatic.
“The August study is the critical one because that study looks to Dec. 31 or Jan. 1 (and the) projected lake elevations,” said Mark Clark, Bullhead City council member and Arizona Water Banking Authority member. “If Lake Mead is below 1,075 feet in elevation, a shortage is declared. If it’s above 1,075, no shortage is declared. Right now they’re anticipating enough conservation, enough precipitation, to keep us just barely above that trigger point.”
The Colorado River system provides water to over 30 million people and 6,300 square miles of farmland in Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming collectively known as the basin states. The basin states, along with the federal government, several American Indian tribes and the Republic of Mexico share Colorado River water supplies, which are managed and operated under numerous compacts, federal laws, court decisions, decrees, contracts and regulatory guidelines.
Arizona, which gets over 40 percent of its water supply from the Colorado River has the right to up to 2.8 million acre-feet of river water annually. An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre of ground one foot deep, approximately 325,851 gallons. One acre-foot supports two to three households per year.
The BOR forecasts all users will get their usual share of water through September 2019, but projects that by October 2019, the surface of Lake Mead could fall below 1,075 feet above sea level, the trigger point for cutbacks. Arizona, Nevada and Mexico would take the first cutbacks.
“If next winter is as bleak as last winter, it’s like a 99 percent chance (a shortage will be declared),” Clark said
The report increases the pressure on the State Steering Committee to complete the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan.
Arizona Department of Water Resources and Central Arizona Water Conservation District representatives announced in May the formation of the steering committee at a joint briefing to address the reliability of and risks to Arizona’s Colorado River supply.
LBDCP is a plan developed by Arizona, California, Nevada and the United States to create additional contributions to Lake Mead from Arizona and Nevada, along with new contributions from California and the U.S. with incentives for additional storage in Lake Mead.
“(DCP is) still a top priority and needs to remain a top priority,” Clark said. “Even if we do get past 2019, if we’re not going to have a shortage next year, it’s going to be by the skin of our teeth. If we don’t have a good (precipitation) year next year, we’re going to be screwed in 2020 — that’s why it is critical that we get the DCP completed.”
Arizona’s largest water users are still trying to agree on a unified state position, water experts said.
“Right now, the thing that’s holding it up is Arizona and the inability to come together,” John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexico’s Water Resources Program told the AP. “The whole system is at risk.”
Mohave County District 5 Sup. Lois Wakimoto, a member of the state steering committee, told the Daily News the four key elements for LBDCP include agricultural mitigation, Tribal intentionally created surplus, Arizona conservation plans and excess water. Source: A Republic
2. Maricopa County Permitting and Innovation Conference If you do business in Maricopa County conference, you may want to consider attending this conference.
Maricopa County Air Quality, Environmental Services, Flood Control District, Planning and Development, Department of Transportation and the Ombudsman’s Office are joining forces to provide a one-day Planning and Innovation Conference on Tuesday, October 2nd.
Businesses that might multiple county permits will have the opportunity to hear from and interact with department directors and representatives. Panel and presentation topics designed to assist businesses include:
- Dept Innovation and Process Improvemernts
- Air Quality Permits and Compliance
- Electronic Document Submittal & Review
- Ask the Experts
- Environmental Services
- Flood Control Tech
- Selecting the best tree
- Planning Overview
3. Invasion Of The Pathogens: How Microbes, And Invasive Species Spreading Them, Threaten The Great Outdoors. There is a growing number of outdoor crazy people who are now avoiding certain places they used to go because of ticks or mosquitoes, or they skip activities entirely to avoid risk. “Instead of running or biking these lovely woodland paths right outside our door, we drive to cleared locations,” one person whose dogs have had Lyme disease told me, they “won’t go near the woods.” Another recommends sailing as a relatively bug-bitefree activity. And so on.
The official stats only stoke our fears: According to the latest report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), insect- and other vector-borne-disease cases in the U.S. have nearly tripled in the last dozen years. Between 2004 and 2016, bites from mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas led to a reported 642,602 human cases of bacterial, viral, and parasite-related illness—with Lyme accounting for 82 percent of those cases. Importantly, nine of the diseases had never been reported in the United States previously. “Those are my biggest concern,” says CDC epidemiologist and report author Ronald Rosenberg, noting that seven of nine are carried by the seemingly ubiquitous tick.
Why are vector-borne diseases on the rise? Lots of reasons, including the growth of global travel and international trade—which ferry diseases and their hosts across oceans—along with climate change and human alteration of habitats, which together affect everything from hydrology to wildlife composition to fire susceptibility. The effects of invasive species round out the picture of why ecosystems might be vulnerable to microbial outbreak.
In fact, invasive species are an underappreciated factor in the emerging disease epidemic. Both the disease carriers that come from afar—say, a mosquito from Asia now in New York or a tick-ferrying rodent that’s invaded Hawaii—and the pathogens themselves that weren’t in the U.S. before, like the Zika virus, fit the official invasive species definition: a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health. Invasive species can themselves make us sick, plus they reduce the natural biodiversity that helps keep ecosystems healthy—including in wildlands and parks where people recreate—and that can give diseases an easier foothold in those special places.
The mosquito is a prime example of how an invasive species can introduce invasive pathogens. One of the world’s deadliest animals, it kills some 725,000 people a year via blood-borne disease. Two U.S. invaders, Aedes aegypti—which originated in Africa before spreading to tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions—and Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito brought to the U.S. via trade and international travel, are the primary vectors for dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, all now present in the United States.
Ticks, too, are facilitating the spread of new diseases. In August last year an exotic species, H. longicornis (the long-horned tick), normally found in East Asia, Australia, and New Zealand, showed up in New Jersey—all over a local farmer. Although not yet reported to carry Lyme, it can transmit a number of other dangerous pathogens. “You never know how an invasive species
will do in a new environment,” notes Pennsylvania Game Commission wildlife veterinarian Justin Brown. “Often they thrive unexpectedly. There’s a whole laundry list of diseases that we’re concerned about because of the potential of [this tick] serving as competent vector.”
4. Oak Creek Canyon Cleanup Event. The Oak Creek Watershed Council invites the public to join on Sunday, August 26th, 9:00am-12:00pm
Come out and help the Oak Creek Watershed Council give some much needed love to Oak Creek Canyon! After a summer of high use from creek-goers we need your help more than ever! We’ll be meeting in the Indian Gardens parking lot on 89A at 9:00 am, Sunday, August 26th. We
have a short talk about Oak Creek, the ecology, high impact issues, and what we do to solve that as an organization before we team up to clean the area. Around 11:40 am we will meet back in the parking lot to sort trash from recycling, weigh items collected, take a group photo with all the things we removed, and thank our volunteers. Come help us cleanup this very popular area and spend sometime in beautiful Sedona before summer ends! We hope to see you there!
Who: Oak Creek Watershed Council, the best group of volunteers around, you, and your friends!
What: Volunteer Cleanup Event
When: Sunday, August 26th, 9:00am-12:00pm
Where: Indian Gardens, Sedona, AZ (Along the 89A in Oak Creek Canyon)
Wear hiking/outdoor apparel and we will provide cleanup tools for you! We ask that volunteers bring comfortable shoes and some water as we will be hiking along the creek in some areas. The OCWC will provide buckets, trash pickers, gloves, reflective vests, and trash bags. We ask that volunteers carpool if possible, due to limited parking.
If you have any questions regarding cleanups please feel free to contact Kalai Kollus, Email: kalai@oakcreekwatershed.org
5. OSHA 8 Hour Refresher. An 8 hour OSHA refresher class will be held on October 8, 2018 Columbus Day, in Glendale.
If you are interested in attending the class, contact D. Salzler at (623) 930-8197 or at sconflict@aol.com. Cost is $80 per student. A light breakfast with coffee is provided and lunch is provided ay no extra cost.
