Daniel Salzler No. 1345
EnviroInsight.org Three Items February 13, 2026
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- Climas: Southwest Climate Outlook for January 2026.
Precipitation and Temperature Rankings
December precipitation was below normal (ranking among the bottom third of Decembers on record) across much of Arizona.. Parts of eastern Arizona saw much-below normal precipitation—totals ranking among the bottom ten percent of years on record.
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Temperature
December temperatures averaged warmer than in any past year on record for areas across the west, including Arizona
Precipitation January – December 2025
Precipitation totals for calendar year 2025 (January–December) ranged from much-below normal for parts of western New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and southern Arizona.
Temperature: Southwest Mean
Temperature January – December 2025, Percentile
Temperatures averaged over the twelve months of 2025 were generally much above average, or ranking in the uppermost ten percent of years on record. For many areas scattered widely across the region, it was the warmest January-December average on record.
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Precipitation: October – December 2025, percentile
Despite the generally dry conditions in December, precipitation totals for the October–December three month period were generally above normal for western and central Arizona, ranging to near normal for eastern Arizona.
Drought January 20, 2026
Over the past month, drought conditions have generally improved for parts of Arizona. Drought conditions in Arizona are generally less acute, with around 30 percent of the state’s area considered drought-free; however Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought persists in areas of northern, eastern, and southern Arizona.
Snowpack & Streamflow
Snowpack is below normal or much-below normal across the Southwest and throughout nearly all of the Colorado River Basin. Snow water equivalent (SWE) measures less than 50 percent of normal for most New Mexico and Arizona stream basins; recent snows have brought a few basins—of the Pecos River and uppermost Rio Grande—to just above 50 percent of normal for this time of year. SWE averaged across all stream basins of the Upper Colorado River Basin measures 64 percent of normal.
Water Supply
The combined water storage held at Lake Powell and Lake Mead is lagging last year’s volume and remains far below the long-term average storage. San Carlos Reservoir is down to 1% of capacity following the past year’s extreme drought on the Gila River watershed. Salt River reservoirs are near average volume; Verde River reservoirs are up compared to last year and well above long-term average levels—in part a consequence of mid-winter snowmelt runoff brought about by high temperatures.
Seasonal PrecipitationOutlook
Feb-Mar-April 2026
The February–April seasonal precipitation forecast leans toward (40–50% chance) below normal precipitation for an area that includes Arizona.
Seasonal Temperature Outlook
Feb-Mar-April
The February–April seasonal temperature forecast calls above normal temperatures likely (50–60% chance) for an area that includes much of New Mexico and part of southeastern Arizona. The forecast also favors above normal temperatures for the remaining parts of Arizona with greater uncertainty—ascribing 33–50% chance probabilities.
Source: https://mail.aol.com/d/search/keyword=Climas/messages/AADGrWpdjrI7NLiTRpwWCcQ42ME
2. Arizona Pushes Back Against Greater Water Cuts As The Colorado River Crisis Deepens
With snowpack and reservoir levels dropping, Arizona and other Lower Basin states warn they can’t shoulder more reductions, while Upper Basin states resist extra cuts ahead of post-2026 negotiations.
With disappointing snowpack levels, dropping water levels at major reservoirs, and Upper Basin states unwilling to take on more reductions – a coalition of Arizona’s water leaders agreed that the Grand Canyon state cannot take on the brunt of future cuts during Monday’s Arizona Reconsultation Committee Meeting.
The seven basin states continue to struggle to reach an agreement on post-2026 operations; the Upper Basin argues that the Lower Basin should take on more cuts since they use more water.
Part of that argument is that the Lower Basin uses that water for crops that feed the rest of the country.
The Upper Basin is made up of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming; the Lower Basin is made up of Arizona, California and Nevada.
Brenda Burman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project General says water released for Lower Basin states might be reduced this year.
“We may breach the compact in 2026, and almost certainly it will be breached in 2027…sobering news, it’s something that hasn’t happened before, our Upper Basin neighbors have always met that obligation in the past,” she said.
Per the 1922 Colorado River Compact, each basin is allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water annually. The Lower Basin is allowed an additional 1 million acre-feet per year to cover diversions from the Gila River and its tributaries in Arizona. If this compact is breached, it could lead to a legal battle between the Lower Basin and Upper Basin states.
The Upper Basin is legally obligated to deliver 7.5 million acre-feet annually to the Lower Basin according to the 1922 Colorado River compact. This is measured at Lees Ferry in Arizona.
Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources says Arizona and the other Basin States have been meeting weekly for the past several months to discuss post-2026 operations– a source of contention between the Basin States is what the Lake Powell to Lake Mead release pattern is.
“We’ve been arguing over a range of releases with the upper basin that might be as low as 7 million acre-feet, maybe 7.3 it depends on the day,” he said.
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Buschatzke noted that with the 1.5 million acre feet of cuts that are on the table from the Lower Basin, Lake Mead could be stabilized – however he noted that the Upper Basin wants the Lower Basin to take a 2 million acre-feet reduction of water.
The next federal deadline for those states to come up with a new plan is February 14. Last year, the seven Basin States missed their Nov. 11 deadline set by the federal government, to come up with new operating guidelines.
Monday’s meeting discussed alternative reduction scenarios throughout the Lower Colorado River Basin that was published by the Bureau of Reclamation – a supplemental document that was released after the Draft Environmental Impact Statement was released.
3. Water Wise.com
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