Daniel Salzler No. 1135 EnviroInsight.org Six Items February 4, 2022
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1. A Chance To Join The NARS Data Analysis Innovation Challenge.
EPA is inviting students, scientists and other stakeholders to examine questions using data from the National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) relating to national priorities including climate change, environmental justice, nutrient management, and other water quality challenges.
Water is one of the most precious resources on earth yet its quantity and quality is threatened by numerous factors. EPA’s NARS program assesses the quality of the nation’s coastal waters, lakes and reservoirs, rivers and streams, and wetlands and provides a point in time assessment of the condition of these resources, identifies key stressors, and track changes over time.
EPA is inviting applicants to assess NARS datasets to address key environmental questions. Each winner or winning team will receive a prize of $5,000. Winners may receive national recognition for their university or organization as well as for the students, scientists, and project activities by being featured on the NARS Data Challenge webpage. Winners may be invited to present at webinars, conferences and/or other events including reaching EPA, state/tribal, and other water quality specialists.
NARS Opens January 31, 2022 and Closes on September 30, 2022.
There will be an informational Webinar on February 9, 2022 at 1:00 AZ Time.
To APPLY, click on https://www.epa.gov/innovation/national-aquatic-resource-surveys-data-analysis-innovation-challenge or copy and paste into your browser and click on “How To Enter”
2. New Plan Lays Out Ways To Protect Lake Powell From Drought KUER 90.1 | By Lexi Peery
The framework for how Upper Colorado River Basin states will respond to low water levels at Lake Powell is now out for public review.
It’s called the Drought Response Operations Plan, which is part of the larger Drought Contingency Plan signed in 2019. These policies were put in place because of the troubling hydrology in the region.
The four Upper Basin states, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico, are working with federal agencies to keep Lake Powell above critical levels. The drought response plan is triggered when Lake Powell’s elevation hits 3,525 feet. Just 35 feet below that is the lowest water level that still allows the Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydropower.
The reservoir is currently sitting just under 27% full or around 3,531 feet.
The plan will be modified yearly depending on the water levels in the Colorado River Basin. It could include releases from reservoirs in the Upper Basin, including Flaming Gorge on the border of Utah and Wyoming.
Rod Smith, an attorney with the U.S. Department of the Interior, said this has been in the works since the Drought Response Operations Agreement was signed in 2019. He said they thought they’d have more time to lay out the framework, but last year sped up the process.
“What we saw instead were some particularly dry springtime numbers in 2021,” he said during a virtual presentation Friday afternoon. “We did not have as much time at that point relative to when we were projected to 3,525 [feet]. So it accelerated things a lot.” Last summer, there were emergency releases from upstream reservoirs. Already this year, monthly water releases have been adjusted.
The plan released Friday is a framework for how things will operate. It doesn’t include specifics because officials are waiting to see the totals for winter and spring precipitation. “We’ve been yo-yoing between excellent October, horrible November, great December. And now we’re just kind of at a blah January,” Smith said. “That’s the reason we don’t have operational proposals yet, more to come on that.”
The draft plan is open for public comment until Feb. 17. It’s expected to be completed in April.
3. January 2022 Southwest Climate Outlook
Precipitation and Temperature: December precipitation ranks were between average and record wettest in Arizona.
December temperature ranks were between above average and record warmest in Arizona.
Annual/Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature: Annual precipitation ranks were between below average and above average in most of Arizona. 2021 temperature ranks were generally much above average across the western U.S.
Three-month Oct-Dec precipitation ranks are on a gradient that transitions from much below normal to much above normal with pockets of record wettest, as you move from southeast to northwest, in the U.S. Southwest.
Drought: The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) showed widespread reductions in drought categorizations, but drought conditions are still found across the western United States.
A move out of “extreme” and “exceptional” drought is an improvement. Some regional categorizations remain in the “severe” (D2) or “moderate” drought categories, although, notably, much of Arizona has moved out of official drought and into “abnormally dry” .
Snowpack & Streamflow: As of Dec 31, snow water equivalent (SWE) has increased across the Southwest, and the Jan 1 streamflow forecast paints a relatively optimistic picture for much of the Colorado River basin (less so the Rio Grande). These normally peak around Mar 1 in the Southwest, so this is an important metric to track regarding the impact of La Niña this winter.
Water Supply: As of Jan 1, most of the reservoirs in Arizona are at or below the values recorded at this time last year, and nearly all of them are below their long-term average (see reservoir storage for Arizona .
ENSO Tracker: ENSO is at La Niña status, based on observed and forecast SSTs, emergent atmospheric conditions, and oceanic/atmospheric coupling indicative of La Niña. ENSO outlooks and forecasts generally call for a weak-to-moderate event to persist this winter with a transition to ENSO-neutral by spring or early summer.
Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for Feb – Apr 2022 indicate cool conditions across the equatorial Pacific. SST anomalies have reached the La Niña threshold, and ENSO outlooks generally call for La Niña conditions to last through winter 2021-2022 and return to neutral conditions in spring/summer 2022.
Forecast Roundup: On Jan 11 the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) called for an 80-percent chance of La Niña conditions to last through winter and an 80-percent chance they would move to ENSO- neutral by the end of spring. On Jan 13 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their La Niña Advisory noting “the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña”, and called for a 67-percent chance of La Niña lasting through the Mar-May period, and a 51-percent chance of neutral conditions during Apr-Jun. On Jan 13 the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look, noting “Sea Surface Temperatures remain well below normal in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific”, and “the evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with weak La Niña conditions”. On Jan 18 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology outlook stated “the 2021- 22 La Niña is near or at its peak” and noted warming sub-surface waters as an early indicator of the gradual shift back to neutral. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line is well into La Niña territory, but similarly forecasts a gradual transition back to neutral conditions by mid-2022.
Summary: The expert/forecast consensus is on La Niña, with expectations the event will last through winter and to move back to ENSO-neutral in spring or early summer. To date, winter conditions are not exactly canonical for La Niña (i.e. wetter and at times cooler than anticipated, given La Niña), but La Niña’s impact will be assessed in monthly, seasonal, water-year, and annual totals, not based on weather events at daily or weekly time scales.
Reservoir Volumes Data through January 1, 2022
Reservoir Capacity Current Storage* Max Storage One Month Change
in Storage*
- Lake Powell 28% 6,713 24,322.0 -303
- Lake Mead 34% 8,198 26,159.0 +116
- Lake Mohave 87% 1,573 1,810.0 + 25
- Lake Havasu 92% 570 619.0 + 5
- Lyman 16% 4.8 30.0 0
- San Carlos 2% 19.7 875.0 – 10.2
- Verde river System 39% 111.3 287.4 + 1.1
- Salt River System 73% 1,472 2,025.8 + 30
* KAF : thousand acre feet
Source:https://climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/SWCO_JAN2022.pdf
4. American Rescue Plan Act Community Partner Grant Program Application Program Exceeds Expectations. – Tucson’s Mayor and Council has allocated a portion of the City’s American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) Local Fiscal Recovery Funds to a Community Partner Grant Program– $10.1 million programmed for this initial year, with a total of $33.8 million over four years. The grant money will be used to partner with community nonprofits and businesses to deliver programs that provide for recovery in the areas of relief for families, essential and frontline workers, and small businesses; community reinvestment and recovery; parks, arts, and culture; workforce and youth development; and promoting affordable and stable housing. The grant application process opened last month, and community interest was higher than expected. As of the Jan. 18 application deadline, more than 140 applications were received. Due to the high volume of applications, it is taking much longer than anticipated to evaluate and score all applications to make award determinations. Therefore, the City will be unable to meet the previously communicated provisional award announcement date of Feb. 2, so the date is being shifted to Feb. 18. For more information, follow the link below. Source: Tucson NewsNet Daily Digest.
APRA local funding information
5. Gem Show Season Underway – The 2022 Gem, Mineral, and Fossil Showcase officially began over the weekend, continuing through Feb. 13. The original public show that started it all, The Tucson Gem & Mineral Show, operated by the Tucson Gem & Mineral Society, will open at the Tucson Convention Center on Feb. 10 and run through Feb. 13 (link below). The best information about the shows is available in the Official Gem Guide (link below). This web app of the guide is hosted and operated by VisitTucson and is developed in partnership with the City of Tucson every year. It provides clear information on show locations, hours, and if the shows are open to the public, wholesale only, or open to both, and it is one of the most important ways that the City supports this annual effort. Due to COVID-19 transmission levels in our region, shows have implemented safety procedures and made changes in their operations with which attendees should plan to comply. Masks are required in Pima County for all indoor spaces where a social distance of a minimum of 6 feet cannot be maintained. For information about vaccines, testing, and masking, please read the flyer from the Pima County Health Department (link below). Source: Tucson NewsNet Daily Digest.
Pima County Health Department guidance for gem shows (PDF)
Pima County Health Department Guidance for Indoor Events
Gem, Mineral & Fossil Showcase
6. CAP’s New Water Allocation Map. Curious about who has allocations to Colorado River water in central and southern Arizona? Here’s a new, easy, visual way to retrieve information about CAP’s 60+ water users with long- term contracts. Take a look at the newCAP Water Allocations Map or enter this link into your browser ( https://knowyourwaternews.com/are-you-a-visual-learner-youll-love-caps-new-water-allocations-map/) -to view CAP allocations, including municipal and industrial users and tribes.
The search bar helps you easily navigate to users within the CAP service area (Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties). Click on any water provider to pop open a table and view more information about the water use, like the allocation priority, volume and contract number(s). For water users located outside of the CAP Service Area or that have multiple areas, their information is still available using the search feature.
For context, check out this Know Your Water News Article for more information about CAP’s Water Priority System.
Prefer a more linear format? You can still access the original Subcontract Status Report at our Contracts and Documents page.
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